What Real-Time Economic Data Says About the Economy
Real-time economic data continues to provide valuable insight into the health of the U.S. economy. While many traditional economic reports are released weeks or months after activity occurs, real-time economic data offers a more current view of economic growth, manufacturing activity, and labor market conditions.
Most economic reports tell us what happened weeks or even months ago. As a result, investors often make decisions using information that is already dated.
One of the most widely followed measures of real-time economic data is the Federal Reserve’s Weekly Economic Index (WEI). The index combines several high-frequency indicators, including consumer spending, employment trends, rail traffic, electricity use, fuel sales, and steel production.
Through the first half of 2026, the Weekly Economic Index has estimated economic growth near 3%. That is well above the long-term average of approximately 2%. The message has remained consistent: the U.S. economy continues to show resilience despite elevated interest rates, inflation concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Figure 1. Federal Reserve Weekly Economic Index and ISM Manufacturing Index. Sources: Federal Reserve and Institute for Supply Management. Latest available data as of June 12, 2026.
What Real-Time Economic Data Reveals
The Federal Reserve’s Weekly Economic Index helps investors evaluate current economic conditions. Unlike many traditional reports, the index updates frequently and provides a more timely estimate of economic growth.
Current readings suggest economic activity remains stronger than many expected. Even with higher interest rates and ongoing global uncertainty, real-time economic data continues to indicate steady growth.
How Real-Time Economic Data Reflects Manufacturing Growth
Manufacturing data tells a similar story.
The ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 54 in May, its highest reading in four years. A reading above 50 signals expansion, and May marked the fifth consecutive month above that threshold. In addition, 16 of the 18 industries surveyed reported growth.
Manufacturers faced a challenging environment from 2023 through much of 2025. However, lower interest rates and stronger business investment have improved conditions.
Investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, data centers, semiconductor production, and power generation has also supported growth across the sector.
Some businesses may have accelerated orders in recent months due to concerns that Middle East tensions could increase oil prices and production costs. Regardless of the motivation, manufacturing activity has continued to strengthen.
Manufacturing activity remains one of the clearest signals within current real-time economic data.
What Real-Time Economic Data Says About the Labor Market
Employment data reinforces the broader economic picture.
Employers added 172,000 jobs in May, while economists revised the prior two months higher. At the same time, unemployment declined from a peak of 4.5% late last year to 4.3%.
Consumer spending remains another source of support. Households continue to spend, even though the pace has moderated compared to a year ago.
Because consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. economic activity, continued demand remains an important driver of growth.
Labor market trends continue to support the broader message coming from real-time economic data.
Why Real-Time Economic Data Matters for Investors
As we move into the second half of 2026, inflation and energy prices remain important factors for investors to monitor.
Earlier this year, conflict in the Middle East pushed oil and gas prices higher. That added pressure to inflation and helped keep interest rates elevated.
However, a significant development may improve that outlook.
A New Development in the Middle East
On Sunday, the United States and Iran announced a deal to end hostilities. Officials expect to sign a formal agreement in Geneva this week.
The agreement includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This shipping route carries approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.
Because of its importance, disruptions in the region can have a significant impact on global energy prices.
Markets Respond Quickly
Financial markets reacted immediately to the announcement.
U.S. crude oil prices fell nearly 5% on Monday to $80.75 per barrel. Heating oil declined more than 3.5%, while wholesale gasoline prices dropped more than 2.5%.
Even after those declines, oil prices remain above where they began the year. As a result, a full return to pre-conflict price levels may take time.
What Lower Energy Prices Could Mean
If energy prices continue to decline, the impact on inflation could be meaningful.
The conflict pushed average gasoline prices as high as $4.56 per gallon earlier this year. Prices have since moved lower as markets began anticipating a potential agreement.
Lower energy prices can provide several benefits:
- Reduced costs for consumers
- Lower transportation expenses
- Lower production costs for businesses
- Improved household purchasing power
In addition, lower energy prices could help inflation move closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
If inflation continues to ease, policymakers may gain greater flexibility when considering future interest rate decisions.
For an economy already growing above its long-term average, lower energy costs could provide an additional tailwind during the second half of the year.
What Investors Should Watch
While recent developments are encouraging, uncertainty remains.
Energy supply chains may take time to normalize as shipping routes reopen, backlogs clear, insurance coverage returns, and production ramps back up.
In addition, geopolitical agreements often face implementation challenges, and the long-term durability of this agreement remains uncertain.
Even so, the broader story of 2026 remains one of resilience.
Taken together, real-time economic data continues to indicate a resilient economy entering the second half of 2026.
The economy has continued to expand despite higher interest rates, inflation concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty. Manufacturing activity has improved, the labor market remains healthy, and consumer spending continues to support growth.
Key Takeaway
Real-time economic data continues to point to a resilient U.S. economy.
Manufacturing activity is improving, employment remains strong, and lower energy prices could provide additional support in the months ahead.
While risks remain, current economic indicators suggest the economy entered the second half of 2026 from a position of strength.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is real-time economic data?
Real-time economic data refers to high-frequency indicators that provide a current view of economic activity. Unlike traditional reports that are released weeks or months after activity occurs, real-time economic data helps investors better understand current economic conditions.
What is the Federal Reserve’s Weekly Economic Index?
The Weekly Economic Index is a Federal Reserve measure that combines consumer spending, employment trends, fuel sales, rail traffic, and other indicators to estimate current economic growth.
What does the ISM Manufacturing Index measure?
The ISM Manufacturing Index measures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 generally indicates expansion.
Why are energy prices important to the economy?
Energy prices influence transportation costs, manufacturing expenses, and household budgets. Lower energy prices can help ease inflationary pressures and support economic growth.
What do current economic indicators suggest about the 2026 economy?
Current economic indicators suggest the U.S. economy remains resilient. Real-time economic data, manufacturing activity, and employment growth continue to support economic expansion despite ongoing uncertainty.
Important Disclosures
FAS Wealth Partners, Inc. (“FAS”) is a federally registered investment advisor with the Securities and
Exchange Commission. This material is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to
its diversified services. Accordingly, the publication of this material should not be construed by any
consumer and/or prospective client as FAS solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, transactions in
securities or the rendering of personalized investment or tax advice for compensation, over the Internet.
Any subsequent, direct communication by FAS with a prospective client shall be conducted by a
representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the
state where the prospective client resides. For information pertaining to the registration status of FAS,
please contact the SEC or the state securities law administrators for those states in which FAS maintains
registration or notice filing. FAS current written disclosure statement (Form ADV Part 2A) discussing FAS
business operations, services, and fees is available from FAS upon written request.
The information provided by FAS, or any portion thereof, may not be copied or distributed without FAS
prior written approval. All statements are current as of the date written and does not constitute an offer or
solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any
person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. The standard fee schedules for
FAS strategies are shown in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2.
This information was produced by, and the opinions expressed are those of FAS as of the date of writing
and are subject to change. Any research is based on FAS proprietary research and analysis of global markets
and investing. The information and/or analysis presented have been compiled or arrived at from sources
believed to be reliable, however FAS does not make any representation as their accuracy or completeness
and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. Some internally generated information
may be considered theoretical in nature and is subject to inherent limitations associated therein. There are
no material changes to the conditions, objectives, or investment strategies of the model portfolios for the
period portrayed. Any sectors or allocations referenced may or may not be represented in portfolios of
clients of FAS, and do not represent all the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for client accounts.
Certain portions of this material (i.e., newsletters, articles, commentaries, etc.) may contain a discussion of,
and/or provide access to, FAS (and those of other investment and non-investment professionals) positions
and/or recommendations as of a specific prior date. Due to various factors, including changing market
conditions, such discussion may no longer be reflective of current position(s) and/or recommendation(s).
Moreover, no client or prospective client should assume that any such discussion serves as the receipt of,
or a substitute for, personalized advice from FAS, or from any other investment, tax, or financial
professional. FAS is neither an attorney nor accountant, and no portion of the material content should be
interpreted as legal, accounting or tax advice. FAS recommends clients and prospective clients consult their
tax professionals before enacting strategy or recommendation perceived to have been made in this material.
Accordingly, any discussion of U.S. tax matters contained herein (including any attachments) is not
intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, in connection with the promotion, marketing or
recommendation by anyone unaffiliated with FAS of any of the matters addressed herein or for the purpose
of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties.
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should
assume that future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments
and/or investment strategies recommended by FAS) or product referred to directly or indirectly by FAS in
its material, or indirectly via a link to an unaffiliated third-party material, will be profitable or equal the
corresponding indicated performance level(s). The standard deviations, information ratios and allocation
targets may be higher or lower at any time. There is no guarantee that these measurements will be achieved.
The information provided should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell a particular
security. Any specific securities identified do not represent all the securities purchased, sold or
recommended for advisory clients, and may be only a small percentage of the entire portfolio and may not
remain in the portfolio at the time you receive this report. Different types of investments involve varying
degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or
profitable for a client or prospective client’s investment portfolio. Historical performance results for
investment indices and/or categories generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial
charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which
would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results.
Due to differences in actual account allocations, account opening date, timing of cash flow in or out of the
account, rebalancing frequency, and various other transaction-based or market factors, a client’s actual
return may be materially different than those portrayed in the model results. The reader should not assume
that any investments in sectors and markets identified or described were or will be profitable. Investing
entails risks, including possible loss of principal. The use of tools cannot guarantee performance. Past
performance is no guarantee of future results. The information provided may contain projections or other
forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, or expectations, and is only current as of the
date indicated. There is no assurance that such events or targets will be achieved and may be significantly
different than that shown here. The information presented, including statements concerning financial
market trends, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by
subsequent market events or for other reasons. The charts depicted within this presentation are for
illustrative purposes only and are not indicative of future performance. The data do not reflect the material
differences between stocks, bonds, bills, and inflation, such as fees (including sales and management fees),
expenses or tax consequences.
Chart of the Month | June 2026
What Real-Time Economic Data Says About the Economy
Real-time economic data continues to provide valuable insight into the health of the U.S. economy. While many traditional economic reports are released weeks or months after activity occurs, real-time economic data offers a more current view of economic growth, manufacturing activity, and labor market conditions.
Most economic reports tell us what happened weeks or even months ago. As a result, investors often make decisions using information that is already dated.
One of the most widely followed measures of real-time economic data is the Federal Reserve’s Weekly Economic Index (WEI). The index combines several high-frequency indicators, including consumer spending, employment trends, rail traffic, electricity use, fuel sales, and steel production.
Through the first half of 2026, the Weekly Economic Index has estimated economic growth near 3%. That is well above the long-term average of approximately 2%. The message has remained consistent: the U.S. economy continues to show resilience despite elevated interest rates, inflation concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Figure 1. Federal Reserve Weekly Economic Index and ISM Manufacturing Index. Sources: Federal Reserve and Institute for Supply Management. Latest available data as of June 12, 2026.
What Real-Time Economic Data Reveals
The Federal Reserve’s Weekly Economic Index helps investors evaluate current economic conditions. Unlike many traditional reports, the index updates frequently and provides a more timely estimate of economic growth.
Current readings suggest economic activity remains stronger than many expected. Even with higher interest rates and ongoing global uncertainty, real-time economic data continues to indicate steady growth.
How Real-Time Economic Data Reflects Manufacturing Growth
Manufacturing data tells a similar story.
The ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 54 in May, its highest reading in four years. A reading above 50 signals expansion, and May marked the fifth consecutive month above that threshold. In addition, 16 of the 18 industries surveyed reported growth.
Manufacturers faced a challenging environment from 2023 through much of 2025. However, lower interest rates and stronger business investment have improved conditions.
Investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure, data centers, semiconductor production, and power generation has also supported growth across the sector.
Some businesses may have accelerated orders in recent months due to concerns that Middle East tensions could increase oil prices and production costs. Regardless of the motivation, manufacturing activity has continued to strengthen.
Manufacturing activity remains one of the clearest signals within current real-time economic data.
What Real-Time Economic Data Says About the Labor Market
Employment data reinforces the broader economic picture.
Employers added 172,000 jobs in May, while economists revised the prior two months higher. At the same time, unemployment declined from a peak of 4.5% late last year to 4.3%.
Consumer spending remains another source of support. Households continue to spend, even though the pace has moderated compared to a year ago.
Because consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. economic activity, continued demand remains an important driver of growth.
Labor market trends continue to support the broader message coming from real-time economic data.
Why Real-Time Economic Data Matters for Investors
As we move into the second half of 2026, inflation and energy prices remain important factors for investors to monitor.
Earlier this year, conflict in the Middle East pushed oil and gas prices higher. That added pressure to inflation and helped keep interest rates elevated.
However, a significant development may improve that outlook.
A New Development in the Middle East
On Sunday, the United States and Iran announced a deal to end hostilities. Officials expect to sign a formal agreement in Geneva this week.
The agreement includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This shipping route carries approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.
Because of its importance, disruptions in the region can have a significant impact on global energy prices.
Markets Respond Quickly
Financial markets reacted immediately to the announcement.
U.S. crude oil prices fell nearly 5% on Monday to $80.75 per barrel. Heating oil declined more than 3.5%, while wholesale gasoline prices dropped more than 2.5%.
Even after those declines, oil prices remain above where they began the year. As a result, a full return to pre-conflict price levels may take time.
What Lower Energy Prices Could Mean
If energy prices continue to decline, the impact on inflation could be meaningful.
The conflict pushed average gasoline prices as high as $4.56 per gallon earlier this year. Prices have since moved lower as markets began anticipating a potential agreement.
Lower energy prices can provide several benefits:
In addition, lower energy prices could help inflation move closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
If inflation continues to ease, policymakers may gain greater flexibility when considering future interest rate decisions.
For an economy already growing above its long-term average, lower energy costs could provide an additional tailwind during the second half of the year.
What Investors Should Watch
While recent developments are encouraging, uncertainty remains.
Energy supply chains may take time to normalize as shipping routes reopen, backlogs clear, insurance coverage returns, and production ramps back up.
In addition, geopolitical agreements often face implementation challenges, and the long-term durability of this agreement remains uncertain.
Even so, the broader story of 2026 remains one of resilience.
Taken together, real-time economic data continues to indicate a resilient economy entering the second half of 2026.
The economy has continued to expand despite higher interest rates, inflation concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty. Manufacturing activity has improved, the labor market remains healthy, and consumer spending continues to support growth.
Key Takeaway
Real-time economic data continues to point to a resilient U.S. economy.
Manufacturing activity is improving, employment remains strong, and lower energy prices could provide additional support in the months ahead.
While risks remain, current economic indicators suggest the economy entered the second half of 2026 from a position of strength.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is real-time economic data?
Real-time economic data refers to high-frequency indicators that provide a current view of economic activity. Unlike traditional reports that are released weeks or months after activity occurs, real-time economic data helps investors better understand current economic conditions.
What is the Federal Reserve’s Weekly Economic Index?
The Weekly Economic Index is a Federal Reserve measure that combines consumer spending, employment trends, fuel sales, rail traffic, and other indicators to estimate current economic growth.
What does the ISM Manufacturing Index measure?
The ISM Manufacturing Index measures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 generally indicates expansion.
Why are energy prices important to the economy?
Energy prices influence transportation costs, manufacturing expenses, and household budgets. Lower energy prices can help ease inflationary pressures and support economic growth.
What do current economic indicators suggest about the 2026 economy?
Current economic indicators suggest the U.S. economy remains resilient. Real-time economic data, manufacturing activity, and employment growth continue to support economic expansion despite ongoing uncertainty.
Important Disclosures
FAS Wealth Partners, Inc. (“FAS”) is a federally registered investment advisor with the Securities and
Exchange Commission. This material is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to
its diversified services. Accordingly, the publication of this material should not be construed by any
consumer and/or prospective client as FAS solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, transactions in
securities or the rendering of personalized investment or tax advice for compensation, over the Internet.
Any subsequent, direct communication by FAS with a prospective client shall be conducted by a
representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the
state where the prospective client resides. For information pertaining to the registration status of FAS,
please contact the SEC or the state securities law administrators for those states in which FAS maintains
registration or notice filing. FAS current written disclosure statement (Form ADV Part 2A) discussing FAS
business operations, services, and fees is available from FAS upon written request.
The information provided by FAS, or any portion thereof, may not be copied or distributed without FAS
prior written approval. All statements are current as of the date written and does not constitute an offer or
solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any
person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. The standard fee schedules for
FAS strategies are shown in the firm’s Form ADV Part 2.
This information was produced by, and the opinions expressed are those of FAS as of the date of writing
and are subject to change. Any research is based on FAS proprietary research and analysis of global markets
and investing. The information and/or analysis presented have been compiled or arrived at from sources
believed to be reliable, however FAS does not make any representation as their accuracy or completeness
and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. Some internally generated information
may be considered theoretical in nature and is subject to inherent limitations associated therein. There are
no material changes to the conditions, objectives, or investment strategies of the model portfolios for the
period portrayed. Any sectors or allocations referenced may or may not be represented in portfolios of
clients of FAS, and do not represent all the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for client accounts.
Certain portions of this material (i.e., newsletters, articles, commentaries, etc.) may contain a discussion of,
and/or provide access to, FAS (and those of other investment and non-investment professionals) positions
and/or recommendations as of a specific prior date. Due to various factors, including changing market
conditions, such discussion may no longer be reflective of current position(s) and/or recommendation(s).
Moreover, no client or prospective client should assume that any such discussion serves as the receipt of,
or a substitute for, personalized advice from FAS, or from any other investment, tax, or financial
professional. FAS is neither an attorney nor accountant, and no portion of the material content should be
interpreted as legal, accounting or tax advice. FAS recommends clients and prospective clients consult their
tax professionals before enacting strategy or recommendation perceived to have been made in this material.
Accordingly, any discussion of U.S. tax matters contained herein (including any attachments) is not
intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, in connection with the promotion, marketing or
recommendation by anyone unaffiliated with FAS of any of the matters addressed herein or for the purpose
of avoiding U.S. tax-related penalties.
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, no current or prospective client should
assume that future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments
and/or investment strategies recommended by FAS) or product referred to directly or indirectly by FAS in
its material, or indirectly via a link to an unaffiliated third-party material, will be profitable or equal the
corresponding indicated performance level(s). The standard deviations, information ratios and allocation
targets may be higher or lower at any time. There is no guarantee that these measurements will be achieved.
The information provided should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell a particular
security. Any specific securities identified do not represent all the securities purchased, sold or
recommended for advisory clients, and may be only a small percentage of the entire portfolio and may not
remain in the portfolio at the time you receive this report. Different types of investments involve varying
degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or
profitable for a client or prospective client’s investment portfolio. Historical performance results for
investment indices and/or categories generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial
charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which
would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results.
Due to differences in actual account allocations, account opening date, timing of cash flow in or out of the
account, rebalancing frequency, and various other transaction-based or market factors, a client’s actual
return may be materially different than those portrayed in the model results. The reader should not assume
that any investments in sectors and markets identified or described were or will be profitable. Investing
entails risks, including possible loss of principal. The use of tools cannot guarantee performance. Past
performance is no guarantee of future results. The information provided may contain projections or other
forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, or expectations, and is only current as of the
date indicated. There is no assurance that such events or targets will be achieved and may be significantly
different than that shown here. The information presented, including statements concerning financial
market trends, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by
subsequent market events or for other reasons. The charts depicted within this presentation are for
illustrative purposes only and are not indicative of future performance. The data do not reflect the material
differences between stocks, bonds, bills, and inflation, such as fees (including sales and management fees),
expenses or tax consequences.
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